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This Week’s Catalysts & Setups

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or trading advice. These are event-driven setups we’re watching, not recommendations. See the end of this newsletter for full disclaimer.

FOCUS #1: Iran Conflict – Energy, Defense & Nuclear Catalysts

Strait of Hormuz Risk – Oil & Gas Premium

A closure or perceived threat to the Strait of Hormuz (~20% of global oil flow) has pushed crude higher. Traders are watching for further escalations or headline-driven volatility.

📍 Setup framing:

• Trade levered oil & gas or shipping exposure

• Monitor services & drillers for upside lag

📊 Names to watch:

• Big oil & gas producers: XOM, CVX, OXY

• Oil services: SLB, HAL

• Natural gas: EQT, UNG

• Offshore / high beta: RIG, TELL, NBR

• Tanker/shipping: FRO, DHT, TNK

Defense Stocks – War Premium & ISR Spending

Following the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear assets, ISR platforms and missile defense systems are being repriced as defense budgets react.

📍 Setup framing:

• Primes re-rate on DoD flows and NATO alignment

• ISR and tactical suppliers see upside on near-term headlines

📊 Names to watch:

• Defense primes: LMT, RTX, NOC

• ISR & drone plays: AVAV, KTOS, MRCY

• Small-cap / spec tier: VTSI, POWW, AOUT, PLTR

Uranium/Nuclear Policy – Enrichment Restrictions & Supply Chain Shifts

Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized Iran should import enriched uranium, reinforcing global trust in Canadian, Australian, and U.S. producers. With Iran continuing enrichment, the West is doubling down on external sourcing protocols.

📍 Setup framing:

• Any deal enforcing import-only enrichment will benefit established uranium exporters

• A broader supply chain realignment could lead to a re-rating of uranium inventory plays

• SMR buildout continues to create latent demand over the next 12–36 months

📊 Names to watch:

• Large-cap producers: CCJ, NXE

• U.S.-based juniors: UEC, UUUU, DNN

• SMR-linked nuclear: OKLO, BWXT, CEG

FOCUS #2: Events – Inflation, Powell, Tesla Robotaxi

Friday, June 27 – Core PCE Inflation Report

PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Consensus calls for 0.2% M/M and 3.9% Y/Y — any surprise could swing rate cut expectations for Q3/Q4.

📍 Setup framing:

• Hot PCE → value & financials lead

• Cool PCE → tech, gold, homebuilders gain

📊 Names to watch:

• Financials / value: JPM, BAC, FCX

• Energy: XOM, CVX

• Tech / growth: AAPL, MSFT, NVDA

• Defensive: GLD, DHI, LEN

Powell Testimony – June 24–25

Chair Powell speaks before Congress. If he reinforces the Fed’s dot plot (7 of 19 projecting no cuts), expect value/energy to lead. If he softens, rate-sensitive growth benefits.

📊 Names to watch:

• Hawkish: XLF, CVX, XOM, JPM

• Dovish: QQQ, ARKK, GLD, IWM

Tesla Robotaxi Launch – Austin Pilot (Live)

Tesla launched its monitored robotaxi fleet June 22. The Model Y-based service is now live and being watched closely by investors, regulators, and competitors.

📍 Setup framing:

• Strong public/regulatory reception → TSLA re-rates on AV leadership

• Delays or missteps → dampens sentiment in the AV/robotaxi complex

📊 Names to watch:

• Direct: TSLA

• AV supply chain: MBLY, NVDA

• Sympathy: GOOG (Waymo), UBER

• EV/eVTOL crossover: ACHR, JOBY

FOCUS #3: SPACs – Volume Signals & Narrative Shift

Sentiment Turn – Chamath + Goldman Back

Chamath Palihapitiya announced his return to the SPAC market and Goldman Sachs has resumed SPAC underwriting after a multi-year freeze.

📍 Setup framing:

• Legitimate sponsor activity boosts market confidence

• Expect inflows to NAV-floor pre-deal names with quality teams

🔍 Unusual SPAC Volume Watch

A handful of pre-deal SPACs exhibited increased trading volume last week. We combine that activity with additional filters, such as sponsor reputation, float behavior, and historical patterns, to identify SPACs that may be preparing for a deal or material update.

These are not confirmed DAs, and volume alone doesn’t imply insider flow. It may simply reflect increased interest from informed or tactical investors, whether due to theme alignment, sponsor quality, or quiet positioning ahead of filings.

📍 Use these as potential watchlist candidates, not predictions.

• SPKL, HVII, AACB, TACO, RDAG, WENNU, EQV, MBAV, FERA, NHIC, RTAC, RAC, SBXD

DISCLAIMER: Everything in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or trading advice. These are event-driven setups we’re watching, not recommendations. See the end of this newsletter for full disclaimer.

Earnings

IPOs & Other Public Listing Recap

IPO/ Listing Action

Past week

Last week, there were 7 listings:

• 2 SPAC IPOs

• 4 Traditional IPOs with strong showings led by Caris and Slide, top: CAI +39.74%

• 1 Reverse Merger

See more: Latest Listings

Expected IPOs

See more: Upcoming Listings

Industry/Theme Recap

Covered in Alphabetical order: AI + Robotics, Aerospace/Defense, Consumer, Crypto, Energy/Materials/Industrials, Financials/Real Estate, Healthcare, Logistics/Transport/Automotive, Media/Telecom

AI, Robotics, Quantum

Live Coverage: Core AI & Infrastructure theme page, Next Wave AI theme page

Prominent Private/ Non-US Listed M&A:

• Apple considered acquiring Perplexity as a hedge against losing its Google search deal, though no talks have begun.

• Meta held failed takeover talks with Perplexity before investing $14.3B in Scale AI; later tried recruiting Perplexity’s CEO.

• Meta attempted to acquire Safe Superintelligence at a $32B valuation, then pursued SSI co-founders via NFDG fund investment.

Pre-IPO Financings (Series C+ and Prominent):

• Legal-AI startup Harvey raised a $300M Series E at a $5B valuation co-led by Kleiner Perkins and Coatue to expand into tax accounting and double its 340+ staff, building on deployments with firms like Paul Weiss, KKR and PwC.

• xAI will allocate a $5B debt package via Morgan Stanley with floating and fixed-rate options despite limited financial transparency and high-yield headwinds.

• Observability platform Coralogix raised $115M Series E co-led by NewView, CPPIB and NextEquity, pushing valuation past $1B to fuel AI-driven growth.

Other Situations / Industry Activity / Commentary:

• Meta reportedly offered signing bonuses up to $100M to lure OpenAI talent amid delays to its Llama model.

• OpenAI threatened antitrust action against Microsoft over control of its AI products and IP rights tied to the Windsurf acquisition.

• Lawmakers urged Palantir to disclose $113M in Trump-era contracts, raising concerns over surveillance plans.

• X Corp. sued New York over the StopHidingHate Act, arguing disclosure rules violate free speech rights.

Aerospace & Defense

Live Coverage: New Space theme page; NextGen Defense theme page

Listings - Launches/ Plans / Rumors:

• Honeywell detailed its plan to spin off its aerospace, automation, and materials arms segments at the Paris Air Show by 2H26 under Elliott-backed plans, positioning the aerospace unit for a potential >$100B valuation.

Pre-IPO Financings (Series C+ and Prominent):

• Wire-harness design startup Senra Systems raised $25M Series A led by CIV and backed by top-tier VCs to scale aerospace-defense manufacturing and launch proprietary software.

• Vehicle-intelligence platform Applied Intuition raised $600M in a Series F/tender round at a $15B valuation to expand global hiring and product rollout.

• German defense-AI firm Helsing raised €600M (~$693M) led by Prima Materia, valuing it at ~$12B to scale autonomous systems and battlefield software.

• Defense-robotics startup Mach Industries raised $100M Series B led by Khosla and Bedrock to grow its Forge platform and autonomous weapons line.

• Military planning software firm Onebrief raised a $20M Series C extension led by Battery Ventures, lifting its valuation to $1.1B amid Pentagon adoption.

Other Situations / Industry Activity / Commentary:

• OpenAI won a $200M DoD contract under its 'OpenAI for Government' program to prototype frontier-AI tools.

Consumer & Retail

Listings - Launches/ Plans / Rumors:

• Kilcoy Global Foods, an Australia-based protein producer, filed for a U.S. IPO to fund acquisitions and automation after posting $2.2B revenue and 74% net income growth in FY24.

• Vietnamese tech group VNG reiterated plans for a U.S. IPO after delaying in 2024, citing macro conditions and considering a local listing move to Ho Chi Minh City’s main exchange.

Public M&A:

• Hyatt completed its acquisition of Playa Hotels & Resorts (PLYA), adding 15 high-profile all-inclusive properties to its portfolio and integrating Playa’s team into its platform.

• Rugged device maker Sonim acknowledged Doogee’s $3.60/share cash bid but said it needs clarity on financing, strategy, and regulatory feasibility before comparing it to its existing LOI.

Bankruptcies / Delistings:

• At Home, a U.S. home-décor chain owned by Hellman & Friedman, filed for Chapter 11 to shed nearly $2B in debt following tariff-related sales declines.

Crypto

Listings - Launches/ Plans / Rumors:

• Anthony Pompliano’s Bitcoin-treasury vehicle ProCap will go public via SPAC Columbus Circle Capital Corp I (CCCM), raising $750M+ to deploy into bitcoin.

• Blockchain platform Tron will go public via reverse merger with SRM Entertainment, injecting $210M in tokens and naming Eric Trump to management.

• Renewable-energy firm VivoPower will spin off its DOGE-mining unit Caret Digital via Nasdaq IPO at a ~$308M valuation, raising up to $50M.

• Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) has surged 245% since its $31 IPO, boosted by a stablecoin bill and Seaport Global “buy” rating; market cap ~$28.6B.

Energy, Materials, and Industrials

Public M&A:

• US Steel (X), a major U.S. steel producer, was acquired by Nippon Steel for $14.1B in cash, with regulatory protections and $11B investment commitments across U.S. states.

• Emeren (SOL), a renewable energy company, will be acquired by Shurya Vitra Ltd. for $2.00 per ADS, with delisting from NYSE expected in Q3 2025 pending approvals.

• Oil-and-gas royalty firm PHX Minerals (PHX) was taken private at $4.35 per share in cash by WhiteHawk Income.

Pre-IPO Financings (Series C+ and Prominent):

• Nuclear-reactor developer TerraPower raised $650M in a round co-led by NVIDIA’s NVentures, Bill Gates and HD Hyundai to fund its first Natrium plant and global expansion.

Bankruptcies / Delistings:

• Brooge Energy (BROG), an energy infrastructure company, was delisted from Nasdaq and now trades OTC under the symbol BROGF.

Enterprise Software, Cybersecurity

Listings - Launches/ Plans / Rumors:

• Dot AI (DAIC), an AI-focused tech firm, will begin trading on Nasdaq on June 23 following its SPAC merger with ShoulderUP Technology.

Public M&A:

• Couchbase (BASE), a database software company, will be acquired by Haveli Investments for $1.5B in cash ($24.50/share), with a go-shop period through June 23 and H2 2025 close.

Pre-IPO Financings (Series C+ and Prominent):

• Horizon3.ai, a cybersecurity company behind the NodeZero platform, raised a $100M Series D led by NEA to scale growth and added NEA’s AI-strategy head Lila Tretikov to its board.

• Teamworks, a provider of AI-powered solutions for sports organizations, raised $235M in a Series F led by Dragoneer at a $1B+ valuation to expand across pro and collegiate sports.

Fintech & Financial Services, Insurance, Real Estate

Listings - Launches/ Plans / Rumors:

• Financial licensing consultancy firm Enigmatig (EGG) priced a $14.2M IPO at $5/share, implying a $60.5M valuation; Prime Number Capital was lead underwriter.

• Property insurtech firm Slide (SLDE) priced a $408M IPO at $17/share, raising $283M for the company and $125M for insiders; Barclays led the deal.

• Spun-off building-materials supplier Amrize (AMRZ) began trading on NYSE and SIX after Holcim’s 100% spin-off, launching with 19,000 employees and >1,000 sites serving infrastructure, commercial, and residential construction.

• Wealthfront, the robo-advisor known for automated portfolios and high-yield savings, confidentially filed for a US IPO.

Public M&A:

• Mortgage lender Guild agreed to a $1.3B all-cash take-private by Bayview Asset Management at $20/share, with a possible $0.25 special dividend.

• Building-products distributor GMS is weighing QXO’s $95.20/share ($5B) all-cash offer as Home Depot quietly submits a competing bid, sparking a potential bidding war.

• Surgical facilities operator Surgery Partners ended buyout talks with 39% owner Bain Capital over pricing and will present a standalone plan at its 2H25 investor day.

• Office REIT Orion received a $2.50/share non-binding bid from Kawa Capital for the ~90% it doesn’t own, with the board reviewing terms with legal and financial advisors.

Pre-IPO Financings (Series C+ and Prominent):

• Juniper Square raised $130M Series D at a $1.1B valuation to accelerate JunieAI, its AI platform for private markets GPs, amid rapid international growth.

• Fintech platform Ramp raised $200M Series E led by Founders Fund, boosting its valuation to $16B in the firm’s fifth Founders-led round.

Bankruptcies / Delistings:

• Engineering firm ENGlobal's shares were canceled as its bankruptcy plan became effective; the stock now trades OTC as ENGCQ.

Healthcare

Listings - Launches/ Plans / Rumors:

• Caris Life Sciences (CAI), an AI-driven molecular diagnostics company, priced its $494.1M IPO at $21/share for a $6.24B valuation, led by BofA Securities.

• Crescent Biopharma (CBIO), formed via a GlycoMimetics reverse merger, began trading on Nasdaq following a 1-for-100 reverse split and name change.

• Jyong Biotech (MENS), a biotech company, priced its $20M IPO at $7.50 per share, implying a $570.2M market cap; Joseph Stone Capital was lead underwriter.

• Hong Kong–based pharma firm Dr Ashleys will list via reverse merger with Impact BioMedical (NYSE American: IBO).

• Ocugen’s cell therapy unit OrthoCellix will list via reverse merger with Carisma Therapeutics and raise $25M in concurrent financing.

Public M&A:

• Self-service commerce tech firm Cantaloupe (CTLP) will be acquired by 365 Retail Markets in an $848M all-cash deal at $11.20/share, a 34% premium.

• Biopharma firm Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) will be acquired by Supernus for $8.50/share plus up to $3.50 CVR, valuing the deal at up to $795M.

• Gene-editing biotech Verve Therapeutics (VERV) will be acquired by Eli Lilly for $10.50/share plus up to $3.00 CVR, for a total of up to $1.3B.

• Kronos Bio's (KRON) acquisition by Concentra Biosciences closed.

• Illumina will acquire proteomics firm SomaLogic (SLGC) for $350M plus up to $75M in milestones and integrate it into its multiomics platform.

Pre-IPO Financings (Series C+ and Prominent):

• Nabla, an AI clinical-assistant developer, raised a $70M Series C led by HV Capital and Highland Europe to support U.S. healthcare system expansion.

• Referral-automation platform Tennr raised a $101M Series C led by IVP with a16z, GV, ICONIQ and others to grow its language-model workflow engine, which now supports millions of U.S. patients across hundreds of providers.

Bankruptcies / Delistings:

• Biotech firm Lipella Pharmaceuticals (LIPO) was delisted from Nasdaq and began trading OTC.

• Femto Technologies (FMTO), a women's wellness software firm, was delisted from Nasdaq and now trades OTC under FMTOF.

Logistics, Transportation & Travel, Autos

Live Coverage: Logistics theme page

Public M&A:

• JD.com acquired Chinese delivery platform Dada Nexus (DADA) for $2.00/ADS (~$500M), with shares delisted following shareholder approval.

Prominent Private/ Non-US Listed M&A:

• Southeast Asian super-app Grab (GRAB) paused ~$7B GoTo acquisition talks after Jakarta regulators raised competition and labor concerns.

Pre-IPO Financings (Series C+ and Prominent):

• Transportation and logistics group Watco secured a >$600M minority equity investment from Duration Capital to fund full control of Industrial Rail Services at six Dow Chemical sites and expand its rail and port network.

Bankruptcies / Delistings:

• Assisted-driving tech company LeddarTech (LDTCF) filed for bankruptcy in Canada and was delisted, warning equity holders of minimal recovery.

• EV Chipmaker Wolfspeed (WOLF) will enter pre-packaged Chapter 11 by July 1 to cut ~$4.6B debt and emerge by end of Q3 2025.

Media, Telecom, Entertainment

Listings - Launches/ Plans / Rumors:

• Liberty Broadband will spin off GCI Liberty on July14, distributing 0.20 GCI shares per Liberty share and listing the 100%-owned GCI Liberty as a separate public company.

• Warner Bros. Discovery secured a $17.5B JPMorgan bridge loan and bondholder support to split its HBO Max, Warner Bros. and DC content units from cable assets into two separate public firms.

Thanks for reading,

The team at ListingTrack

Market Data and Coverage: All market data presented is based on the stock prices at the close of the previous trading day. We cover the US market only at this time.

DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes and for your convenience only and is not intended to be treated as financial, investment, tax, or other advice. The author or guest authors may have positions in any of the stocks discussed. ListingTrack and its parent, CommonFi, do not make any guarantees, representations, or warranties as to, and shall have no liability for, the timeliness, truthfulness, sequence, quality, completeness, or accuracy of any of the information or data provided in this newsletter or on the ListingTrack website.